Strategic Estimate

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Purpose. Prepare a Strategic Estimate for the Caucasus Region using current, real-world information.

• The Strategic Estimate shall include the following elements of a Strategic Estimate as set out in the Guide to Strategic Estimate Development and Appendix B, JP 5-0: o Introduction (Overview of Recent Events; Mission/Problem) o Strategic Direction (US/Multinational Policy Goals; End State) ;

o Strategic Environment (AOR/ Region; AOI; Adversary, Friendly and Neutral forces);

o Major Strategic and Operational Challenges;

o Potential Opportunities; o Assessment of Risks. Scenario

• Recent events in the USEUCOM AOR, especially Russia’s actions against Ukraine, have led the USEUCOM Commander to direct the preparation of strategic estimates for the AOR.

• As a starting point, the USEUCOM Chief of Staff has tasked the J5 to prepare strategic estimates for the regions of the AOR.

• In addition to the doctrinal elements of a strategic estimate as described in JP 5-0, the regional estimates will also include phase 0 shaping activities – such as security cooperation – to align and focus efforts and resources to mitigate threats and challenges, prepare for conflict and contingencies, and set the theater. For a review of security cooperation, refer to lesson C204 Part 2 DOD Organization and Processes.

Requirement.

Acting as a USEUCOM Joint Planning Group, prepare a Strategic Estimate of the Caucasus Region for the country of Ahurastan. Finish the draft Strategic Estimate. You will complete the following slides:

• the Regional Study on Ahurastan (slides 26 – 28),

• develop a third Option (slides 45 – 47),

• evaluate the third Option (slide 48),

• compare the Options (slide 49),

• And recommend an Option to the Commander (Slide 50). At a minimum, your PowerPoint presentation should consist of 11 slides. The C207 Caucasus Region Reference folder contains all of the references you need to finish the estimate; you do not have to use any outside sources other than those provided to you. Cite your sources where you found the information. And use either footnotes or endnotes IAW the Turabian style of documentation; do not use parenthetical citations. This includes direct quotations, paraphrases, and summaries of the assigned readings, doctrinal references, strategic documents, or outside sources

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