Background: ISIS appears to be/is losing its foothold in Iraq and Syria, with both Mosul and Tal Afar having fallen in recent weeks. However, their existence is reigniting active extremism and terror in South East Asia, specifically the Philippines. This city of Marawi in the southern Philippines has become particularly problematic in recent months. It is believed that Islamists from Mosul, Chechnya, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Afghanistan and various parts of Africa have descended to the region in large numbers. Additionally, at least 60 groups in Southeast Asia have sworn their allegiance to the ISIS caliphate. Given the history of extremist activity in the region, and the proximity to Australia we are concerned about what is occurring in the region and need to remain aware of the situation and its possible implications for Australia policy and operations.
TASK: What is the current situation in Marawi and the southern Philippines in relation to ISIS?
Provide an assessment on how the situation in the region is likely to evolve, or change, in the next three months and clearly state what the situation is most likely to be by the end of 2017.
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